Sei United States ichinetseka ne 'tariff war'?
Pane yechipiri nguva yemuno, Mutungamiriri wenyika yeAmerica VaTrump vakasaina gwaro repamusoro pazvinonzi "mitero yakaenzana", vachizivisa kuti United States yaizotemera "minimum benchmark tariff" yegumi muzana kune vanotengeserana navo uye nekuisa mutero wepamusoro kune vamwe vanodyidzana navo. Iyo 2% mutero wakatemerwa kune vese vanotengeserana vanotanga kushanda musi wa10.
United States yakambozivisa mutero we25% pamotokari dzese dzinotengeswa kunze kwenyika nesimbi nealuminium, uye yakatyisidzira kuisa mutero we200% pazvigadzirwa zvedoro zveEU. Sezvo hutongi hwaTrump hwakatora chigaro, United States yagara ichisimudza "tsvimbo hombe" yemitero uye yakatanga "kurwiswa zvisina tsarukano" kune vangangove vese vatengesi vakuru vekutengesa, izvo zvakonzera kusagutsikana kwakasimba pasi rese uye mudzimba, uye zvakare yakaverengerwa nenyika zhinji.
1, Sei Mutungamiri Trump vakawedzera mitero?
Sei Trump achiomerera pakushandisa mutero wemitero, iyo inopesana nemutemo wake wenguva refu wekutengeserana kwekusununguka, paanosimudza tsvimbo uye misika yepasi rose haina kusiyiwa, kunyange Japan yakashevedzera "mitero inozunungusa nheyo yenyika", uye kunyange misika yeUnited States yakatambura semugumisiro? Isu tinotenda kuti munhoroondo, 'hondo yemitero' yave chishandiso chezvematongerwo enyika cheUnited States kwete nhanho yehupfumi. Kubva payakavambwa muna 1776, United States yakaedza kakawanda kukunda matambudziko ehupfumi nekukwidza mutero, asi haina kuwana mhedzisiro inotarisirwa, uye yakatodzosera kumashure. Semuenzaniso, Mutungamiri Reagan aitarisira kuchengetedza mabhizinesi epamba nekukwidza mitero. Muchokwadi, mitengo yaimbove ndiyo yainyanya kuwana mari kuhurumende yeUS. Nhamba dzeWhite House dzinoratidza kuti pakati pa1798 na1913, mutero waipfuura hafu yemari yegore negore yehurumende yemubatanidzwa muUnited States, inosvika pa90%. Naizvozvo, mari yemitero panguva ino ndiyo chete yakavimbika sarudzo yekubvisa kudzvanywa kweiyo inouya treasury bond, asi mumakore makumi manomwe apfuura, chikamu chinongosvika 70%. Izvi zvinoreva kuti hurumende yeUnited States haichakwanisi kuita purofiti yakakura nekukwidza mitero, uye nhoroondo yakaramba ichiratidza kuti mitero yakakwirira inokuvadza vamwe uye haibatsiri iwe pachako, zvichiita kuti munyika dzakawanda dzive nekunetsana. Muchokwadi, mushure mekunge hondo yemitero yatanga, United States yakapindawo mudambudziko.
2, Sei Mutungamiri Trump achida mutemo uyu zvakanyanya?
Zvichienderana nemamiriro ezvinhu aripo, sezvo zvombo zvemitero zvisingagone kurapa zvirwere uye zvinogona kutouraya, nei hutongi hwaTrump huchiri kuzvishandisa? Kana tichitarisa kumashure kunhoroondo yeAmerica, tinogona kuona kuti mutemo wemitero weAmerica unokanganiswa zvikuru nesarudzo dzemutungamiri wenyika, uye kazhinji pane chinangwa chezvematongerwo enyika chiri shure kwayo kukwezva mavhoti uye kubatanidza hwaro hwemavhoti. McKinley naHoover vese vakavimbisa panguva yekuratidzira kwavo semutungamiri wenyika kuchengetedza maindasitiri epamba uye kurarama nekuderera kwehupfumi nekuisa mutero pakutora chigaro. Munguva yekutonga kwaNixon, zvematongerwo enyika zvaive hwaro hwakakosha hwesarudzo dzake dzehupfumi; Gwaro raGeorge W. Bush remitengo yesimbi nealuminium rakanga rakananganawo nekuvaka mukurumbira wesarudzo dzepakati petemu gore iroro.
Mukati memushandirapamwe wavo wemutungamiri wenyika, Mutungamiri VaTrump vakadzokorora kutaura kuti kuisa mitero kuchave nemabhenefiti akawanda. Douglas Owen, purofesa wezvehupfumi paDartmouth College kuUnited States, akataura kuti zvipikirwa zvepamusoro zvemitero zvakabudirira kuumba chimiro chaTrump se "mudziviriri wevashandi vekuAmerica" uye zvakamubatsira kuhwina mavhoti mumatunhu akakosha, kunyanya Rust Belt kuMidwest. Mushure mekudzokera kuWhite House, "tariff obsession" yaTrump yakawedzera, ichiiona se "master key" yekugadzirisa matambudziko ese. Izvi zvine hukama zvakanyanya nemamiriro ezvematongerwo enyika asina kunaka ari kuUnited States.
3, Ko hondo yemitero ichaita sei munyika dzakasiyana siyana?
Mhedzisiro yehondo yemitero kuUnited States inonyanya kuratidzwa mune zvakawanda zvinhu zvakaita sehupfumi, zvematongerwo enyika, uye nzanga. .
1: Panyaya yehupfumi, hondo yemitero yakakonzera kurova kwakawanda kuhupfumi hweUS. United States yakatemera mitengo yakakwira kumatunhu akawanda epasi, kunyanya kuChina. Mitero yakawedzera zvishoma nezvishoma kubva pa20% yekutanga kusvika 245%, izvo hazvina kungokonzera kuti United States irasikirwe nemusika wayo mukuru muChina, asi zvakare yakakonzera kuputika kweketani yepasi rose. Vatengesi vezvekurima vekuUS, kunyanya vatengesi vesoya, varasikirwa zvikuru. Mushure mekunge China yadzima kutengeserana kwayo neUnited States, nhamba huru yezvigadzirwa zvekurima haigone kutengeswa kunze kwenyika
Pamusoro pezvo, hondo yemitero yakawedzera mukana wehupfumi hweUS kuwira mukuderera, kukanganisa kuvimba kwemusika wemari, uye zvakakonzera kurasikirwa mumasheya, mabhondi, mari yekunze, uye chikwereti.
2: Panyaya yezvematongerwo enyika, kukanganisa kwemitemo yemitero kuchatanga kuoneka muUnited States yose mukupera kwemwedzi unouya, kunyanya nekukanganisa kukuru kwevanhu vane mari shoma. Nekuda kwekuti vanhu vane mari shoma vanopa yakawanda yemari yavo pakutenga zvinhu, kukwira kwemitengo kunovakanganisa zvakanyanya.
Pamusoro pezvo, hondo yemitero yakakonzerawo matanho kubva kunyika dzakawanda pasi rose, zvichiwedzera kusawirirana kwekutengeserana nedzimwe nyika.
3: Maererano nemagariro evanhu, hondo yemitero yakakonzera kuwedzera kwekushaya basa uye kusagadzikana kwevanhu. Iyo Smoot Hawley Tariff Act munhoroondo muenzaniso, izvo zvakakonzera kuwedzera kwekushayikwa kwemabasa kweUS, kuderera kwehupfumi, uye pakupedzisira zvakakonzera Kuderera Kukuru.
Kunyange zvazvo nzanga yemazuva ano iine mano akasimba okutsungirira, batano dziri pakati pemapato ose dziri pedyo zvikuru. Kana iyo US ikakanganisa hondo yemitero, kwete chete matambudziko akafanana achamuka, asi zvinozotungamira mukugadziriswazve kwehurongwa hwemari hwepasirese.
